News
Glenigan: Planning approvals point to improved project starts in 2010
08/02/2010
The value of underlying planning approvals fell 13% last year as developers shelved planned projects in response to the economic recession and scarce bank finance. At first glance the drop in planning approvals points to a continued slide in projects starting on site during 2010. Closer scrutiny offers a more encouraging outlook for the year ahead. Whilst trading conditions are still tough and downside risks remain, recent planning approval data point to a gradual improvement in key sectors over the next 12 months.
Whilst the value of underlying planning approvals fell during 2009 as a whole, the low point was reached during the first quarter of the year when uncertainty and fears over a global economy where at their height. Planning approvals have subsequently strengthened in each of the three following quarters; indeed approvals during the final six months of 2009 were up a year earlier.
Government funded projects have helped drive the pick-up in planning approvals, with the education, health and social housing sectors all enjoying strong year on year growth. Near term this should help to underpin the flow of project starts in these sectors as government departments, local authorities and other public sector bodies seek to secure an early start to planned schemes ahead of the general election.
However, whilst important these have not been the only source strengthening planning approvals. The flow of civil engineering projects in the pre-construction pipeline also strengthened markedly over the course of 2009. Furthermore the fourth quarter saw a strengthening in private housing approvals, which were 41% up on the corresponding quarter of 2008. The improvement in planning approvals follows a modest pick-up in private housing starts during the third quarter of 2009 and is further evidence that developers are more confident about prospects of the UK housing market over the coming year.
In contrast the private non-residential sectors remain becalmed, with planning approvals for industrial and office projects especially sparse and we expect project starts in these sectors to remain weak during the first half of 2010. However, whilst planning approvals have yet to improve we anticipate that project starts should strengthen during the second half of the year. Investor activity in the commercial and industrial sectors has picked up sharply in recent months, lifting capital values. A further strengthening in capital values coupled with improved capital market would encourage developers to re-activate some of the planned projects that were shelved as the recession hit.
Reproduced with permission from the Glenigan Subscriber Newsletter. CIMCIG members can access the ful newsletter here - http://www.glenigan.com/newsletter2010/feb2nd2010_custnews.asp
CIMCIG members can also get a discount on Glengan services - see http://www.cimcig.org/aboutus.php?id=13 for details
